The report analyzes Maryland voting patterns across all 23 counties and Baltimore City using five benchmark elections: the 2014, 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections, plus the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.
Its central finding is that Maryland remains deeply Democratic statewide, but the political map is sharply divided between heavily Democratic population centers and reliably Republican rural counties.
Major findings
- Republicans Larry Hogan and Donald Trump carried most Maryland jurisdictions geographically, but Democrats prevailed statewide by dominating the state’s largest population centers.
- Larry Hogan won Maryland by 3.85 percentage points in 2014 and nearly 12 points in 2018.
- The Democratic statewide margin was approximately 34 points in the 2020 presidential election, 33.5 points in the 2022 gubernatorial election and 29.5 points in the 2024 presidential election.
- The Democratic presidential margin narrowed by approximately 4.5 percentage points between 2020 and 2024.
- Anne Arundel, Baltimore County, Frederick, and Howard counties shifted from Republican in the Hogan elections to Democratic in the 2020, 2022 and 2024 elections.
- Kent and Talbot counties were especially competitive. Both supported Democrats in 2020 and 2022 but returned to the Republican column in 2024.
- Allegany, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil, Dorchester, Garrett, Harford, Queen Anne’s, Saint Mary’s, Somerset, Washington, Wicomico and Worcester remained Republican throughout all five benchmark elections.
- Baltimore City, Charles, Montgomery and Prince George’s remained consistently Democratic.
Turnout patterns
Maryland turnout was considerably higher during presidential elections:
- 2018 gubernatorial election: 59.06%
- 2020 presidential election: 74.63%
- 2022 gubernatorial election: 49.33%
- 2024 presidential election: 72.97%
The most important GOTV finding is the substantial drop between presidential and gubernatorial participation. More than one million fewer participation records were reported in 2022 than in 2020. This suggests that identifying presidential-election voters who skip gubernatorial elections could provide campaigns with a large and valuable turnout universe.
Voting-method changes
Voting behavior has changed significantly since 2018:
- Mail voting increased dramatically in 2020.
- Mail voting declined in 2024 but remained much more common than before the pandemic.
- Early voting accounted for nearly one-third of statewide participation in 2024.
- Election Day voting represented only about 38% of total 2024 participation.
Campaigns therefore cannot rely primarily on traditional Election Day operations. Effective GOTV programs must begin before early voting and include dedicated mail-ballot follow-up.
Strategic takeaway
The report suggests a two-part Republican strategy:
- Increase turnout among reliable Republican presidential voters who frequently skip gubernatorial elections.
- Rebuild competitiveness in Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Frederick and Howard counties while protecting close jurisdictions such as Kent and Talbot.
The report provides strong countywide benchmarks for targeting and budgeting. However, it does not yet classify individual precincts as Democratic, Republican or swing precincts. It deliberately avoids estimating missing precinct data or treating early-voting-center totals as if they represented the surrounding precinct.
Overall, this is a useful statewide baseline for a Maryland Republican turnout program, but a complete operational GOTV plan would still require voter-file analysis, precinct-level returns, individual voting histories and reliable geographic crosswalks.